{"id":3399,"date":"2024-02-11T18:41:56","date_gmt":"2024-02-11T18:41:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crashxbet.com\/?p=3399"},"modified":"2026-01-08T23:43:47","modified_gmt":"2026-01-08T23:43:47","slug":"kelly-criterion-crash-gambling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crashxbet.com\/fr\/kelly-criterion-crash-gambling\/","title":{"rendered":"Le crit\u00e8re de Kelly dans les jeux de hasard"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le Crit\u00e8re de Kelly est un moyen intelligent de d\u00e9cider combien d'argent parier. Il vous aide \u00e0 miser juste le bon montant pour faire fructifier votre argent r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement sans risquer de tout perdre. Consid\u00e9rez-le comme votre guide pour parier judicieusement. Il est tr\u00e8s populaire parmi les parieurs et les investisseurs car il permet de limiter les risques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La formule de base du crit\u00e8re de Kelly est la suivante<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud835\udc53\u2217=(\ud835\udc4f*\ud835\udc5d\u2212\ud835\udc5e)\/\ud835\udc4f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">o\u00f9 :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\ud835\udc53\u2217 est la fraction de la bankroll \u00e0 miser\u00a0;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud835\udc4f est la cote nette re\u00e7ue sur le pari\u00a0;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud835\udc5d est la probabilit\u00e9 de gagner ;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud835\udc5e est la probabilit\u00e9 de perdre, qui est 1\u2212\ud835\udc5d.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-interpretation\">Interpretation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\ud835\udc53\u2217\u00a0: Repr\u00e9sente la fraction optimale de votre bankroll que vous devriez parier pour maximiser votre croissance attendue. Si le r\u00e9sultat est de 0,25, par exemple, cela sugg\u00e8re que vous devriez miser 25 % de votre bankroll.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud835\udc4f<\/strong>: Le multiplicateur associ\u00e9 au pari, moins 1. Par exemple, si vous pouviez doubler votre argent en cas de gain (2 $ de remise pour chaque pari de 1 $, y compris la mise initiale), \ud835\udc4f serait 1.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud835\udc5d<\/strong>: Votre probabilit\u00e9 \u00e9valu\u00e9e de gagner le pari. Il doit s&#039;agir d&#039;une valeur comprise entre 0 et 1, o\u00f9 0,5 repr\u00e9sente 50 % de chances de gagner.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud835\udc5e<\/strong>: La probabilit\u00e9 de perdre le pari, calcul\u00e9e comme 1\u2212\ud835\udc5d.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Kelly Bet Calculator<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"max-width: 400px; margin-left: 0;\">\n        <label for=\"probability\">Probability of a Win (0 to 1):<\/label>\n        <input type=\"number\" id=\"probability\" placeholder=\"e.g., 0.6\" step=\"0.01\" min=\"0\" max=\"1\" style=\"width: 100%; margin: 5px 0\">\n\n        <label for=\"proportion\">Proportion of the Bet Gained with a Win:<\/label>\n        <input type=\"number\" id=\"proportion\" placeholder=\"e.g., 2\" step=\"0.01\" min=\"0\" style=\"width: 100%; margin: 5px 0\">\n        <div style=\"margin: 3px 0 10px 0; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.2;\">\n            E.g., if betting $100 on a 2-to-1 odds bet (upon win you are returned $300, winning you $200), then b=$200\/$100=2.\n        <\/div>\n\n        <button id=\"calculate\">Calculate Bet Size<\/button>\n\n        <div id=\"output\" class=\"output\" style=\"margin: 5px 0\"><\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n    <script>\n        (function() {\n            document.getElementById('calculate').addEventListener('click', () => {\n                const probability = parseFloat(document.getElementById('probability').value);\n                const proportion = parseFloat(document.getElementById('proportion').value);\n\n                const output = document.getElementById('output');\n\n                if (isNaN(probability) || isNaN(proportion) || probability < 0 || probability > 1 || proportion <= 0) {\n                    output.textContent = 'Please enter valid inputs.';\n                    return;\n                }\n\n                \/\/ Kelly Criterion formula: f* = p - (1 - p) \/ b\n                const optimalFraction = probability - ((1 - probability) \/ proportion);\n\n                if (optimalFraction <= 0) {\n                    output.textContent = 'The Kelly Criterion suggests not to bet in this scenario.';\n                } else {\n                    output.textContent = `Suggested bet size (as a fraction of bankroll): ${(optimalFraction * 100).toFixed(2)}%`;\n                }\n            });    \n        })()\n        \n    <\/script>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-how-to-use-it\">How to Use It<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Acc\u00e9dez \u00e0 vos 50 \u00e0 100 derniers jeux<\/strong>: La plupart <span data-no-translation=\"\" class=\"cbw-no-translate\">crash<\/span> les jeux ont une histoire. De plus, <a href=\"https:\/\/bcgame-project.github.io\/verify\/crash.html?hash=9455412a5e4b51b986ba71ab08eddee80678c905ecefc8d0051c79493f0037b2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">prouv\u00e9 juste<\/a> games give you full access to the game history and results. For example, third-party scripts are used to verify game on <a href=\"https:\/\/nanogamesio.github.io\/verify\/crash.html?hash=eedf311a3fdfb41cd4259aabf499c35c6131011b9e64117be99c46462d906756\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span data-no-translation=\"\" class=\"cbw-no-translate\">NanoGames<\/span><\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Calculez votre avantage<\/strong>: Your \"edge\" is \ud835\udc4f*\ud835\udc5d\u2212\ud835\udc5e. If this value is positive, you have an advantage over the house or the market.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>D\u00e9terminer la taille du pari<\/strong>: La formule vous indique la proportion optimale de votre bankroll \u00e0 parier pour maximiser la croissance et minimiser les risques.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Applying this strategy manually requires diligence in tracking and calculating. But can offer insights into the game's patterns and your betting strategy's effectiveness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-example\">Exemple :<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you're betting on a coin toss where you win double your bet for guessing right, and you somehow know the coin has a 51% chance of landing heads (which you bet on):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\ud835\udc4f=1 (puisque vous doublez votre mise en cas de gain)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud835\udc5d=0,51<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud835\udc5e=0,49<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En introduisant ces donn\u00e9es dans la formule de Kelly, on obtient<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud835\udc53\u2217=(1)(0,51)\u22120,49=0,02<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ce r\u00e9sultat sugg\u00e8re que vous devriez miser 2 % de votre bankroll sur chaque pile ou face afin de maximiser la croissance de votre bankroll au fil du temps tout en minimisant le risque.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-important-considerations\">Consid\u00e9rations importantes :<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le crit\u00e8re de Kelly suppose que vous pouvez estimer avec pr\u00e9cision les probabilit\u00e9s (\ud835\udc5d et \ud835\udc5e). Les surestimations peuvent augmenter le risque de pertes importantes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It's a long-term strategy. Short-term volatility can still result in significant drawdowns.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Parier plus que ce que sugg\u00e8re le crit\u00e8re de Kelly augmente votre risque de perdre une plus grande partie de votre bankroll. Parier moins r\u00e9duit le risque mais ralentit \u00e9galement la croissance de la bankroll.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-script-for-bc-game-s-crash\">Script pour le jeu Crash<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En collectant des donn\u00e9es sur 50 parties, vous pouvez calculer une estimation plus pr\u00e9cise de \ud835\udc5d (la probabilit\u00e9 de gagner) et de \ud835\udc5e (la probabilit\u00e9 de perdre, qui est \u00e9gale \u00e0 1-\ud835\udc5d). Ces donn\u00e9es vous permettent d'affiner votre strat\u00e9gie de pari sur la base des r\u00e9sultats historiques, ce qui peut am\u00e9liorer la pr\u00e9cision de vos paris et optimiser la gestion de votre bankroll.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00c9tape 1 : Collecte des donn\u00e9es de jeu<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vous commencez par collecter les r\u00e9sultats des 50 derniers matchs (param\u00e8tre configurable). Cette phase de collecte de donn\u00e9es consiste \u00e0 v\u00e9rifier si chaque jeu atteint votre multiplicateur cible avant de s'effondrer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00c9tape 2 : Calcul des probabilit\u00e9s<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Une fois que vous disposez des donn\u00e9es relatives aux jeux, calculez la probabilit\u00e9 de gain (\ud835\udc5d) en divisant le nombre de jeux qui ont atteint ou d\u00e9pass\u00e9 votre multiplicateur cible par le nombre total de jeux observ\u00e9s (50 dans le cas pr\u00e9sent).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00c9tape 3 : Appliquer le crit\u00e8re de Kelly<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avec \ud835\udc5d calcul\u00e9 \u00e0 partir de vos donn\u00e9es, et sachant que \ud835\udc5e=1-\ud835\udc5d, appliquez la formule du crit\u00e8re de Kelly pour d\u00e9terminer la fraction optimale de votre bankroll \u00e0 miser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Script for Crash game on Nanogames<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We collect game data during the game session. This approach takes some time but is more suitable if you're confident in the game's stability and wish to maximize the data available for analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83d\udd17 <a href=\"\/go\/download-script\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">T\u00e9l\u00e9charger le script<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pour utiliser un <span data-no-translation=\"\" class=\"cbw-no-translate\">Crash<\/span> script du jeu activ\u00e9 <a href=\"\/go\/nanogames\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Nanogames<\/a>, Suivez ces \u00e9tapes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Go to Advanced Betting Mode: In the Crash, switch to \u201cAdvanced\u201d to see different <span data-no-translation=\"\" class=\"cbw-no-translate\">crash<\/span> scripts de jeu.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ajoutez un script : Appuyez sur le bouton Ajouter un script, entrez le code du script que vous voulez utiliser pour lancer les paris automatiques, donnez-lui un nom et appuyez sur le bouton Enregistrer.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ex\u00e9cuter le script : Activez le script pour parier automatiquement et \u00e9ventuellement augmenter votre crypto-monnaie.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<details>\n  <summary><span style=\"text-decoration-style: dashed; text-decoration-line: underline; cursor: pointer;\">Learn how to add and use scripts<\/span><\/summary>\n  <figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"\/go\/nanogames\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/crashxbet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/bcgame-script-screencast-original.gif\" alt=\"How to add and use scripts\" class=\"wp-image-1276\" data-no-translation=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-fe48e5de wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"\/go\/nanogames\/\" style=\"background-color:#17a10d\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">PLAY CRASH<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Consid\u00e9rations importantes :<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Pr\u00e9cision de \ud835\udc5d<\/strong>: La pr\u00e9cision de la probabilit\u00e9 de gain (\ud835\udc5d) affecte directement l&#039;efficacit\u00e9 du crit\u00e8re de Kelly pour optimiser la taille de votre mise. Assurez-vous que votre collecte et votre analyse de donn\u00e9es sont aussi pr\u00e9cises que possible.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Changer la dynamique<\/strong>: Le <span data-no-translation=\"\" class=\"cbw-no-translate\">crash<\/span> game's dynamics might change over time. Regularly update your data and recalibrate your strategy accordingly.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Gestion du risque<\/strong>: The Kelly Criterion helps manage risk, but it's based on the accuracy of your inputs (\ud835\udc5d and \ud835\udc5e). Always be cautious and consider setting aside a portion of your bankroll that is not at risk.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary\">R\u00e9sum\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">R\u00e9sumer la discussion sur l&#039;utilisation du crit\u00e8re de Kelly et l&#039;analyse de l&#039;historique des jeux pour parier dans un <span data-no-translation=\"\" class=\"cbw-no-translate\">crash<\/span> game, the strategy indeed focuses on identifying situations where the probability of winning is deemed favorable based on historical data. By calculating the win probability (\ud835\udc5d) from recent game outcomes and applying the Kelly Criterion, the strategy aims to optimize bet sizes in scenarios where there's a perceived edge\u2014that is, where the chances of winning are higher relative to losses. Here's how it works:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Comprendre la strat\u00e9gie<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Collecter des donn\u00e9es historiques<\/strong>: You accumulate outcomes from a certain number of recent games to analyze the game's behavior. This dataset helps you understand the frequency of winning versus losing at your target multiplier.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Calculer la probabilit\u00e9 de victoire (\ud835\udc5d)<\/strong>: En analysant les donn\u00e9es collect\u00e9es, vous estimez la probabilit\u00e9 qu&#039;un jeu atteigne ou d\u00e9passe votre multiplicateur cible. Cette probabilit\u00e9 de gain est cruciale pour d\u00e9terminer si vous disposez d\u2019un avantage en mati\u00e8re de paris.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Appliquer le crit\u00e8re de Kelly<\/strong>: Avec la probabilit\u00e9 de gain (\ud835\udc5d) en main, vous utilisez le crit\u00e8re de Kelly pour calculer la fraction optimale de votre bankroll \u00e0 parier. Ce calcul est fond\u00e9 sur la logique selon laquelle les paris doivent \u00eatre proportionnels \u00e0 votre avantage\u00a0; une probabilit\u00e9 de gain plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e sugg\u00e8re une taille de pari plus importante, mais seulement jusqu&#039;\u00e0 un point qui \u00e9quilibre la croissance et le risque.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Attendez une opportunit\u00e9 de pari positive<\/strong>: Vous attendez que la probabilit\u00e9 de gain calcul\u00e9e sugg\u00e8re une valeur attendue positive, c&#039;est-\u00e0-dire lorsque le nombre de jeux gagnants dans votre ensemble de donn\u00e9es sugg\u00e8re une chance plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e de gagner que de perdre avec le multiplicateur cible choisi. Ce n&#039;est qu&#039;alors que vous placez un pari, et la taille de ce pari est optimis\u00e9e selon le crit\u00e8re de Kelly pour maximiser la croissance \u00e0 long terme de votre bankroll tout en minimisant les risques.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le principal avantage<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The primary advantage of this strategy is that it's data-driven and dynamic. It adapts to the current conditions of the game as reflected in the most recent outcomes. By focusing on situations where historical data indicates a higher probability of winning, you align your betting strategy with opportunities that have a statistical edge in your favor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00c9l\u00e9ments importants \u00e0 prendre en compte<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Pertinence des donn\u00e9es<\/strong>: Cette strat\u00e9gie suppose que les r\u00e9sultats historiques du jeu sont un pr\u00e9dicteur pertinent des r\u00e9sultats futurs, ce qui est vrai dans les jeux avec des m\u00e9canismes et des probabilit\u00e9s coh\u00e9rents.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Taille de l&#039;\u00e9chantillon et variabilit\u00e9<\/strong>: La pr\u00e9cision de votre estimation de probabilit\u00e9 de victoire d\u00e9pend de la taille et de la variabilit\u00e9 de votre ensemble de donn\u00e9es. Des ensembles de donn\u00e9es plus volumineux peuvent fournir des estimations plus fiables, mais n\u00e9cessitent du temps pour collecter les donn\u00e9es des jeux et une gestion minutieuse pour garantir leur pertinence.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En r\u00e9sum\u00e9, cette strat\u00e9gie s'appuie sur le Crit\u00e8re Kelly et l'analyse des donn\u00e9es historiques du jeu pour identifier et exploiter les opportunit\u00e9s de paris positives, dans le but d'augmenter les chances de gagner en effectuant des paris inform\u00e9s et calcul\u00e9s.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Kelly Criterion is a smart way to decide how much money to bet. It helps you bet just the right amount to grow your money steadily without the risk of losing it all. Think of it as your guide to betting wisely. It&#8217;s very popular among betters and investors for keeping risks low. The [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5776,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[277],"class_list":["post-3399","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-guides-and-strategies","tag-crash-game-script"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Kelly Criterion in Crash Gambling<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Apply the Kelly Criterion with real game data for precise betting strategies in crash games and investment scenarios.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/crashxbet.com\/fr\/kelly-criterion-crash-gambling\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" 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